TVB Forecast

TVB Forecasts Total Spot TV Will Decline 2%-5% in 2009,
Rise 6%-10% in 2010*

New York, Sept. 4, 2008 -- The Television Bureau of Advertising today released its forecast for the local broadcast television industry's next two years at its annual Forecast Conference, attended by several hundred senior broadcast and advertising industry executives at the McGraw-Hill Conference Center in New York.

TVB forecast Total Spot TV revenues in 2009 would decline between 2%-5% in comparison with this year's revenues, with Local Spot revenue in a range of -1.0% to +2.0% and National Spot declining by 7%-10%.

The full range of numbers for next year, according to TVB:

Local Spot

-1.0 to +2.0%

National Spot

-10.0 to -7.0%

TOTAL SPOT

-5.0 to -2.0%

Station Website

+25.0 to +35.0%

Station Wireless

+25.0 to +50.0%

TVB said the 2009-10 market would be shaped by consumer confidence and spending, energy and food prices, debt and credit problems, the real estate market and the identity of the new political leadership elected in November. Key categories would be automotive, political, retail, telecom and financial.

In 2000 TVB began issuing two-year forecasts instead of its traditional one-year forecast. "The structure of the business has changed dramatically because of the Olympics switching to a two-year frequency and because of the growth of political advertising in Spot," said Chris Rohrs, TVB President. "Odd years will always face tough comparisons to even years, when spending on both the Olympics and political ads show up. Spot TV is a two-year business cycle."

TVB's full predictions for 2010 were as follows:

Local Spot

+1.5 to +5.5%

National Spot

+12.5 to +16.5%

TOTAL SPOT

+6.0 to +10.0%

Station Websites 

+20.0 to +25.0%

Station Wireless

+35.0 to +75.0%

TVB estimates -- derived from a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station representative firms, and independent TVB research -- represent national averages. Individual firms and stations may produce varied results based on a number of factors, including market size, region of the country, and affiliation. The not-for-profit Television Bureau of Advertising (www.tvb.org) is the trade association of local television broadcasters. Its members include television broadcast groups, advertising sales rep firms, and over 600 individual television stations.

* Given unfolding and unprecedented economic developments, TVB announced in mid-October that it would re-visit its Forecast. We are reaching out to all of our input sources and ask them to review the projections they gave us last summer. Given the instability in all markets, however, it's unlikely that new numbers will come together very soon. In the interim, be aware that the above numbers are subject to change pending circumstances in the consumer economy and the advertising marketplace. Amended forecasts will be issued as soon as market visibility allows.

 

Click here to view text of Chris Rohrs’s opening remarks.

Click here to view video of Chris Rohrs explaining the Forecast.

Be aware that many of the PowerPoint files listed below are quite large and might take some time to download. Please be patient.

Click here for Chris Rohrs’ PowerPoint and Full Forecast

Click here for the PowerPoint of TVB’s Abby Auerbach

Click here for the PowerPoint of Borrell Associates’ Gordon Borrell

Click here for the PowerPoint of CBS’s David Poltrack

Click here for the PowerPoint of CMAG’s Evan Tracey and click here to view video.

Click here for the PowerPoint of Magna’s Brian Wieser

Click here for the PowerPoint of Standard & Poor’s David Wyss and click here to view video.

Ask TVB Back to Top