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TVB Forecasts Flat Spot Growth in 2005,
Up 7-9% in 2006
New York, Sept. 8, 2004 -- The Television
Bureau of Advertising today released its forecast for the television industry's
next two years at its annual Forecast Conference, converted this year to a
webcast for most participants but still attended by about 50 broadcast executives at the Gannett
headquarters in New York.
TVB forecast Total Spot revenues in 2005 would
fall in a range of -1% to + 1% in comparison with this year's revenues and up 7% to 9% in 2006. The
full range of numbers for next year, according to TVB:
TVB said key categories to watch in 2005
included automotive, telecommunications, pharmaceutical, financial
services/credit cards, and issue advertising.
In 2000 TVB began issuing two-year
forecasts instead of its traditional one-year forecast. "The structure of
the business has changed dramatically because of the Olympics switching to a two-year frequency and because of the growth of political advertising in Spot," said TVB President Chris Rohrs. "Odd years will always
face tough comparisons to even years, when spending on both the Olympics and
political ads show up. Spot TV is a two-year business cycle."
TVB's predictions for 2006 were as
follows:
TVB estimates -- derived from a consensus
of Wall Street and financial analysts, station representative firms, and
independent TVB research -- represent national averages. Individual firms and
stations may produce varied results based on a number of factors, including
market size, region of the country, and affiliation. The not-for-profit Television Bureau of Advertising (www.tvb.org)
is the trade association of local television broadcasters. Its members include
television broadcast groups, advertising sales rep firms, and over 500
individual television stations.
TVB Members: Click here for Powerpoint of Wall Street and TVB Forecasts
TVB Members: Click here for S&P chief economist David Wyss's Powerpoint
TVB Members: Click here for Powerpoint of Morgan Stanley auto analyst Stephen Girsky
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