TVB Forecast

TVB Forecasts Total Spot TV to Decline 1% to 3% in 2007, Grow 8% to 10% in 2008

New York, Sept. 7, 2006 -- The Television Bureau of Advertising today released its forecast for the television industry's next two years at its annual Forecast Conference, attended by several hundred senior broadcast and advertising industry executives at the McGraw-Hill Conference Center in New York.

TVB forecast Total Spot TV revenues would be down in 2007 between 1 and 3% in comparison with this year's revenues, with Local Spot revenue either flat or growing up to 2% and National Spot down by 7-9%. In 2008, TVB predicted that Total Spot TV revenues would be up 8% to 10%, with Local Spot revenue up 5% to 7% and National Spot up by 12% to 14%.

TVB added a new number at this--its twelfth--forecast conference, tracking station websites which TVB president Chris Rohrs said “have achieved critical mass.” TVB predicted that revenue at station websites would grow between 30% and 40% in both 2007 and 2008.

The full range of numbers for next year, according to TVB:

TVB's full predictions for 2008 were as follows:

TVB said market drivers in 2007 would be consumer confidence (affected by employment, housing and terrorism), the impact of oil prices on consumer spending, the automotive and political categories, and emerging new technologies of search, wireless, VOD, DVRs and E-business.

In 2000 TVB began issuing two-year forecasts instead of its traditional one-year forecast. "The structure of the business has changed dramatically because of the Olympics switching to a two-year frequency and because of the growth of political advertising in Spot," said Mr. Rohrs. "Odd years will always face tough comparisons to even years, when spending on both the Olympics and political ads show up. Spot TV is a two-year business cycle."

TVB estimates -- derived from a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station representative firms, and independent TVB research -- represent national averages. Individual firms and stations may produce varied results based on a number of factors, including market size, region of the country, and affiliation.

TVB Members: Click here for materials of the TVB Forecast

TVB Members: Click here to view mini-presentation on engagement.

TVB Members: Click here for materials of S&P chief economist David Wyss

TVB Members: Click here for materials on the Wall Street & Political Outlook panel

TVB Members: Click here for materials on the Multiplatform Outlook panel