TVB Forecast

TVB Forecasts Total Spot TV Will Soar 9% to 10% in 2008

New York, Sept. 6, 2007 -- The Television Bureau of Advertising today released its forecast for the television industry's next two years at its annual Forecast Conference, attended by several hundred senior broadcast and advertising industry executives at the McGraw-Hill Conference Center in New York.

TVB forecast Total Spot TV revenues would be up in 2008 between 9.0% and 10.0% in comparison with this year's revenues, with Local Spot revenue up 5% to 6% and National Spot up by 14% to 16%.

The full range of numbers for next year, according to TVB:

TVB said the market in 2008 would be shaped by the political cycle with its wide-open, no-incumbent presidential race, the impact of the credit crunch on the consumer economy, the re-shaped automotive category, the ability of “new media” to sustain momentum, pressure on business practices and processes, and the Olympics.

In 2000 TVB began issuing two-year forecasts instead of its traditional one-year forecast. "The structure of the business has changed dramatically because of the Olympics switching to a two-year frequency and because of the growth of political advertising in Spot," said Mr. Rohrs. "Odd years will always face tough comparisons to even years, when spending on both the Olympics and political ads show up. Spot TV is a two-year business cycle."

TVB's full predictions for 2009 were as follows:

TVB estimates -- derived from a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station representative firms, and independent TVB research -- represent national averages. Individual firms and stations may produce varied results based on a number of factors, including market size, region of the country, and affiliation. The not-for-profit Television Bureau of Advertising (www.tvb.org) is the trade association of local television broadcasters. Its members include television broadcast groups, advertising sales rep firms, and over 500 individual television stations.

Click here for materials of the TVB forecast

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