Media Industry Leaders Present Local Television Advertising Forecasts At TVB Forward 2018 Conference
New York, September 27, 2018 – TVB, the not-for-profit trade association of America’s local broadcast television industry, today announced advertising forecasts presented at Forward 2018 – Local Broadcast Television’s Annual Conference in New York City.
BIA Advisory Services Total Local TV Advertising and Total U.S. Retail Vertical Forecasts
BIA Advisory Services tracks the billions of dollars that flow into local media. With the return of the election cycle in 2018, BIA projects healthy growth of approximately 6% year-over-year in total ad spending for local broadcast television stations (over-the-air and online TV). Advertisers are expected to spend $19.2 billion on local broadcast television stations in 2018, compared to $18.2 billion in 2017. When examining television ad revenue by region, geographic markets where hotly contested elections are expected are forecasted to generate the largest increases, particularly in the Midwest. Importantly, local broadcast television stations’ online platforms are projected to continue the historical double-digit growth trend.
Looking at the U.S. Retail vertical, the largest marketers in this category including furniture stores, department stores, women’s clothing and home centers are forecasted to spend $1.2 billion, $1.8 billion, $0.9 billion, and $2.9 billion respectively, on local media in 2019. With local stations projected to capture approximately 7.2% of total retail ad spending on local media in 2019, BIA believes local broadcast television has an opportunity to increase market share from direct mail, which is forecasted to capture 43.1% of total retail local media ad spend in 2019 and decline low single-digits thereafter.
To access the full summary of the new BIA Advisory Services Total U.S. Local Advertising Forecast and Total U.S. Retail Vertical Forecasts, visit: http://bit.ly/BIA-RetailTVandOnlineSpend
Commenting on the forecast, Dr. Mark Fratrik, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of BIA Advisory Services stated, “To grow revenue, focus on media losing share, like direct mail. Increases in ad share can be won with focused, directed sales efforts that leverage local TV’s OTA ads intelligently combined with highly
desirable online and mobile offerings."
BIA Advisory Services U.S. Local Advertising Forecast is based on a proprietary forecasting methodology of the local advertising marketplace. Data is delivered by the advertising dashboard, BIA ADVantage.
TVNewsCheck Forecast – Local Broadcast TV Advertising
TVNewsCheck September 2018 survey estimates that local broadcast television total spot advertising spend (local + national), including political, will increase 12.7% in 2018. Excluding political, in 2018 core spot advertising spend is expected to decline 2.3%, primarily due to higher political ad spending.
Looking ahead, the September 2019 survey estimates local broadcast television total core spot advertising spend (local + national), including political, will decline 11.6% in 2019. Excluding political, in 2019 total core spot advertising spend is expected to be flat. Access the full summary of the new TVNewsCheck U.S. Spot TV Advertising Forecast.
Harry Jessell, Editor of TVNewsCheck, stated, “a double-digit decline in 2019 following this year's double-digit gain will come as no surprise because of the cyclical nature of political. What's uncertain is core, which was weaker than expected this year. Always optimistic broadcasters are figuring it will bounce back to flat next year.”
forecast is derived from consensus estimates of nine top-25 television station groups, six leading industry analysts and research firms surveyed in September 2018.
TVB is the not-for-profit trade association representing America’s $21 billion local broadcast television industry. Its members include over 800 individual television stations, television broadcast groups, advertising sales reps, syndicators, international broadcasters and associate members. TVB actively promotes local media marketing solutions to the advertising community and works to develop advertising dollars for the medium’s multiple platforms, including on-air, online and mobile. TVB provides a diverse variety of tools and resources, including its website, to support its members and to help advertisers make the best use of local ad dollars.
Chief Communications Officer
Joe Jaffoni, Jennifer Neuman
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